At the beginning of the year, my country’s electric two-wheeled vehicle companies have put forward unconventional production and sales targets, with a total of more than 70 million. Is this the release of satellites among companies, bragging, or are they really confident? Is the market capacity really so large?

At the end of last year, whether it was leading brands such as Yadi, Emma, Tailing, Xinri, Luyuan, and Xiaodao, or second and third-tier brands with a large scale of only hundreds of thousands of vehicles, it was due to the continuation of the global new crown epidemic since last year. Favorable expectations for the growth of demand for personal travel vehicles have made extraordinary plans for the expansion of production capacity this year. It is estimated that the production capacity of the entire electric two-wheeler will exceed 70 million, among which the production capacity targets of the top five companies It is already above 60 million.

From a development perspective, the new crown epidemic raged last year and market demand increased significantly. Although the global epidemic is still severe this year, market demand should continue to grow and exceed last year. But the future is still full of uncertainties and unknowns. But what is certain is that this year the entire international and domestic market has three major characteristics:

01

The continuation of the epidemic helps exports maintain growth

At present, in addition to China's relatively successful fight against the epidemic, European, American, African countries and Asian countries other than China are still affected by the continuing impact of the epidemic, and the demand for personal travel vehicles including electric bicycles will maintain high growth.

However, there are also differences in the demand for electric two-wheelers made in China in various countries. For example, European countries, especially developed Western Europe and Northern Europe, have strong demand for lithium-ion electric bicycles; low-priced lead-acid battery electric two-wheelers are popular in South America, the Middle East, and the Middle East. Countries in Africa and Southeast Asia are very attractive.

This year, the above-mentioned countries will continue to open their doors to my country's export of electric two-wheeled vehicles, and the market growth momentum is strong.

02

Domestic market scale expansion is full of obstacles, price competition will further intensify

Due to policy constraints in first- and second-tier city centers, many Internet companies, including Haro, Meituan, and Didi, can only put a large number of shared motorcycles in cities such as third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities. The total investment is expected to be 6 million- 6.5 million units, resulting in serious restrictions on the sales of electric bicycles in these cities. The impact on the demand side will inevitably cause companies to obtain sales only through price competitive advantages. For this reason, there is limited room for sales growth in the domestic market this year, and it will be inevitable that some domestic markets will shrink.

03

Leading vehicle companies and core parts companies will maintain their competitive advantages

According to authoritative information, Yadi’s gross profit margin was close to 20% last year, and its annual net profit is expected to be close to 1 billion (subject to actual announcements); Xinri’s gross profit margin is only about 10%, and its annual net profit is less than 200 million. Yuan (subject to actual announcement); while Bafang shares (Suzhou Bafang Motor), which manufactures electric bicycle transmission systems, has a gross profit margin of more than 40%. Last year's annual profit is expected to be 400 million yuan (subject to actual announcement).

Conclusion

This year, the entire electric two-wheeler company has called out the production and sales target of 70 million vehicles. Although there is uncertainty about whether it can be achieved, since it has been called out, it will inevitably go all out to achieve it. With the expansion of the market scale close to the bottleneck, the competition in the entire industry this year will definitely be more intense than in previous years. Parts and components companies with competitive advantages will also develop together, and companies outside the first and second tier camps will also Facing a more severe test.